The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports after its Ukraine invasion will transform the global energy landscape for decades and can help to hasten a green energy transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
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The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook acknowledges the economic hit from reduced supplies of Russian oil, natural gas and coal but is keeping an environmental best case scenario in which no investment in new fossil fuel projects is needed.
The outlook prompted different takes from Australian oil and gas field developers and fossil fuel opponents.
The IEA's report said the global energy crisis is causing profound and long-lasting changes that could hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system.
"Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol on Thursday.
"Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system", Birol added.
Short-term gaps created by the reduction in fossil fuel supplies from Russia will need to be plugged from elsewhere.
The strongest candidates are projects with "short lead times" which rapidly bring oil and gas supplies to market without locking in dependency.
Global clean energy investment is set to rise to more than $US2 trillion ($A3 trillion) a year by 2030, up by half from current levels, while "international energy markets undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries adjust to the rupture of Russia-Europe (energy) flows, the IEA said.
The IEA last year stunned the energy industry by saying lower demand and a rise in low emissions fuels made new oil and gas fields beyond 2021 unnecessary in its most climate-friendly Net Zero Emissions scenario.
The IEA said global emissions of fossil fuels leading to climate change will peak by 2025, as coal use falls within the next several years, natural gas demand plateaus by 2030, and oil demand levels off in the middle of the next decade before falling.
"One of the effects of Russia's actions is that the era of rapid growth in natural gas demand draws to a close," the IEA said, pointing to a rise in global demand for gas of less than 5 per cent between last year and 2030.
But Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA) Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said the report confirmed that "natural gas remains an important part of a cleaner energy future".
"In every scenario outlined by the IEA, natural gas has a critical role to play in Asia through coal-to-gas switching, carbon capture, use and storage, hydrogen production, supporting renewables, and the rise of low-carbon gases.
"Demand for natural gas in the fast-growing developing Asian market continues to provide an economic opportunity for Australia," Ms McCulloch said in a statement.
"Ongoing investment to maintain existing production and facilities, or to fund growth, is required under all scenarios."
But Australian environmental group Market Forces had a different take on the IEA report, saying it undermined the case for energy giants Woodside and Santos' gas field expansion plans.
"There is no room in the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario for gargantuan new projects such as Scarborough-Pluto and Barossa," the group's executive director Julien Vincent said in a statement.
"Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that major oil and gas companies don't know when to stop wasting capital on new projects that have no place in a decarbonised economy," she said.
"Australia's gas exporters need to urgently rethink their business plans for a world committed to reducing reliance on fossil fuels."
with AAP
Australian Associated Press
